BART has been on the upswing lately. Ridership is up, and has been rising for years. Crime is way down, as new fare gates and more BART cops keep nefarious people off the trains. And the cars are new and very nice on the inside.
The problem is that despite these positive changes, BART faces a big structural problem. And advocates say it places multiple BART stations in the East Bay at risk of closure–including Orinda and Martinez’s stations.
The fundamental structure of work in the Bay Area has changed. Before the pandemic, 5-day weeks (or more) were the norm.
Although fully-remote work has largely ended, many Bay Area companies only require their employees to come into the office 3 days out of the week.
Monday and Friday, popular days to work from home, are pretty dead on BART. Couple that with the fact that many younger workers in the AI boom are choosing to live downtown instead of in the ‘burbs, and BART has far fewer people to serve.
Without a bailout, the system could face drastic changes.
BART is now publicly floating a worst-case “funding measure fails” plan that includes closing 10 stations, shutting down major service patterns, and ending the system day at 9 p.m. — all triggered if a proposed November 2026 regional transit funding measure does not win voter approval.
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BART says it is facing a structural deficit beginning in FY27 (roughly $375M-$400M per year) as pandemic-era support runs out and fare revenue remains far below pre-COVID levels.
The 10 stations BART says could close first
In the initial “phase one” scenario (which outside reporting says could be implemented as early as January 2027), the 10 closures discussed are:
Contra Costa County / 925
- Pittsburg Center
- North Concord/Martinez
- Orinda
Alameda County / East Bay
- Castro Valley
- West Dublin/Pleasanton
- South Hayward
- Warm Springs/South Fremont
Peninsula
- South San Francisco
- San Bruno
Airport link
- Oakland International Airport Connector (the spur from Coliseum)
Those closures are paired with a systemwide service rollback that BART acknowledges would be disruptive enough to risk a “death spiral” (cuts lead to fewer riders, which leads to less revenue, which leads to more cuts).
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BART has been explicit that cutting rail service does not save money proportionally (high fixed costs, low marginal savings), which is why station closures, fare increases, and broader reductions show up in the scenario.
Elements BART has flagged publicly include:
- Trains every 30 to 60 minutes
- System closes at 9 p.m.
- 10 stations closed (with some messaging saying 10-15 could ultimately be on the table)
- Line shutdowns (a smaller network)
- No weekend service (raised as a worst-case possibility in coverage of the planning)
- 30% to 50% fare and parking increases
- Roughly 1,000+ layoffs (depending on the scenario)
What a November Vote Would Do
So what’s the way to avoid this “death spiral?” There’s a bill on the table, BART says.
It’s California Senate Bill 63 (SB 63), which was signed in 2025 and authorizes a November 2026 ballot measure designed to provide longer-term operating support for Bay Area transit agencies, including BART.
Advocates backing the measure argue that without a stable funding source (beyond fares), the region could see severe transit retrenchment that would ripple into traffic, commute reliability, downtown recovery, and airport access.
BART says it will discuss the alternative framework at its February 12, 2026 board workshop, with a potential follow-up later in February to adopt a finalized framework for planning purposes if new funding is not secured.
We’ll be following this story extremely closely, especially because this would directly affected Orinda and Concord/Martinez. Join my free 925 News newsletter here so I can update you as soon as we know more.
